Ben_Bailey's Blog

Crystal clear skies and temperatures hitting 70 this afternoon will herald the "feels-like" start to the season of spring.  Expect dry conditions through most of the workweek.  Looks like we'll have better chances of rain coming for the weekend.

Our foray into the fifties will be fleeting.  Expect colder-than-average temperatures for all of this week (except Monday).  And, yes.. we will be shoveling again.

A moderate snowfall comes late Tuesday.  Expect some freezing rain and ice accumulation south of Detroit before that precipitation turns to all snow.  We'll track the storm on Fox 2.

It won't feel like Florida, but temperatures will warm above freezing.. to the warmest highs we've had in two weeks.  Plus we're expecting tons of sun.  Considering what we've been through in the last several days, Saturday and Sunday will be some of the nicest weather days we've had in awhile.

Aftter a slick start to the work week, temperatures are going to rise... and continue rising until they peak in the mid 50s on Tuesday afternoon!  We'll get another shot of cold air and snow on Wednesday, as a strong plains system heads this way.  So Mother Nature will get rid of her last "droppings" before she repeats the process.

The track of Friday's impending white death (that's sarcasm, folks) has looked eerily consistent in most of the data we track.  The core of the system will move out of the plains states, over the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys, through the woods and smash into grandma's house....er, sorry.... got off track there.  But we'll see the surface low pressure center move just off to our southeast.  That's a textbook setup for a major snowfall for southeast Michigan.

Expect a widespread area of significant snow, with a narrow band of extremely heavy snowfall that will arc somewhere through the area.  Nailing down the location of a 10-mile wide band in a system that's half of a continent away is a dart throw at best.  But likely it will be somewhere in our neck of the woods.  So make plans for a messy commute on Friday.

Some early Spring weather arrives early this week.  Temperatures will approach 50 in some locations Tuesday!  There's also an outside chance of a thunderstorm with the rain we're expecting then.  So if you're not a big fan of this section of the calendar, enjoy the next couple days before Winter tightens its grip once again late this week.

After a much warmer-than-average start to this winter, reality sets in this weekend.  Saturday temperatures will max out in the morning just shy of 20°.  Then we'll see numbers fall through the day, until they finally bottom out in the single digits Sunday morning.  Wind chill readings will definitely be below zero, but temperatures may dip below zero as well in the far western suburbs.

After 20 days of winter, we have been below average only three times!   The coldest of those days was 12 degrees below average on January third.  Just four days later, temperatures topped out in the 60s and we were 35 degrees above average! 

Next week is typically (according to the 30-year averages) the coldest week of the year, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that temperatures are about to tumble.

Before this morning, 9° was the lowest recorded temperature this season at Metro Airport.  Arctic air plus a solid snowpack (for most of us) and some calm conditions all contributed to our coldest start since February 5, 2007 when the mercury dropped to -4°.  Welcome to winter in Michigan!

At least for the foreseeable future (through the middle of next week), this will be the coldest day we'll have to endure.  In fact all that snow in the northern suburbs will be a distant memory by the end of the weekend.  Check out the 5 Day Outlook on the Forecast page for all the "sultry" details.

Many of us will be waking up late tomorrow with nowhere to go.  Some of us will wake up and not know where we are or how we got there.  Regardless of how you spend New Year's Eve, you'll most likely spend part of New Year's Day shoveling, blowing and sweeping our latest winter storm out of your driveways and sidewalks.

As I write this, Southeast Michigan will get the most snow of any location in the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley.  This will be comparable to the storm we had in Mid-December, but I think snow amounts will be slightly lower this time.

Even though tonight's snow will make getting to-and-from your celebrations difficult, at least its not coming on a work or school day.  So kick back, relax and watch college football in the warmth of your own living room.  Root for my Missouri Tigers in the Cotton Bowl, which you can see on Fox 2 at 11:30 AM.

It wasn't a sign of the apocalypse.  When many of us were rocked out of bed Sunday morning to rumbles and flashes, we weren't imagining it.  It was thundersnow!... a legitimate meteorological phenomenon.  It's simply a thunderstorm that produces snow instead of rain.

Usually winter storms don't produce as much instability as warm season storms.  But this weekend, we had cold, moist air in the lower levels of the atmosphere, underneath a much colder, drier layer of air.  So as air parcels got rocketed upward, they cooled more rapidly.  An unusually strong low pressure system also helped enhance the lift in this storm.

My advisor at the University of Missouri, Dr. Patrick Market, studied thundersnow reports over 30 years in the contiguous United States.  He found the Great Lakes is one of the favored areas for thundersnow.  But in that 30-year period, he found only 191 events.  That's an average of only six per year! 

Another interesting difference between thundersnow and summer thunderstorms is the sound.  Snow cuts the distance sound can travel.  So if you hear rumbles while its snowing, you can bet the lightning is a lot closer than if you hear the same volume of sound in the summer.

I'm not one of those people that dreads the upcoming three months of the year.  Sure, I can't wear basketball shorts to pick up my drycleaning (most of the time at least).  But for the most part, winter doesn't bother me.  Can't say that I countdown the days 'til it arrives... but I deal with it. 

My biggest complaint about winter in this part of the world is the dry air.  I can deal with the cold and road salt.  And I don't constantly search airfares for cheap Carribbean getaways.  But my moisturizer budget gets pushed to its limit as the season wears on.

So among my new year's resolutions.... drink more water.  I am determined to stay hydrated this winter, so my knuckles don't become 220 grit sandpaper.  It's a small inconvience, really.  After all, how can you truly appreciate spring if you don't go through winter first?

I've said before that I won't tell you how to dress for the elements.  I think you're all smart enough to figure that out.  So this blog posting is as close as I'll come.  The governor has declared this week Winter Hazards Awareness Week.  Check out this site: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/apx/?n=winterwxawareness. 
There are some good reminders to help us get ready to combat Old Man Winter. 

The one piece of advice that I'll be taking is to put some non-perishable food in the car in case I get stranded.  But my goal is to buy something that doesn't taste good so I won't be tempted to snack on it if I'm running errands.  Maybe I'll head to an army surplus store and grab some MRE's.  But I hear those are becoming suprisingly palatable.  So maybe some freeze-dried liver?

Yes, you read that correctly.  Since I love injecting politics in weather (tongue-in-cheek comment), I thought I would pass along the latest findings from NOAA.  The gap in the ozone layer over Antarctica is shrinking.  In fact, researchers expect the hole to close completely by 2070.  You can read the whole story at http://www.noaa.gov

The moon will still be nearly full, but clouds will enshroud it for Halloween.  If you're going trick-or-treating, the winds will be your biggest weather goblin.  Watch out for 20 mph breezes.  And even though I'm forecasting showers tomorrow night, most will happen after midnight.  Temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 60s for the little beggars.

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After watching my teammate get sucker-punched by Sports Bully Dan Miller last night at 5PM, I wished I was on set to come back swinging. Of course, this was only a verbal spat, but it still seemed to come out of nowhere. Now that the Tigers are done and football is still days away, apparently Dan has nothing better to do than take shots at the Weather Authority. This all started over the dewpoint. Is it relevant? Do you need to know the dewpoint?

The dewpoint is simply the temperature to which the air would have to cool to reach 100% relative humidity. This is most helpful during the warmer months, because relative humidity is not a good indicator of how humid it feels outside, especially in the morning. For example, if the temperature and dewpoint are both 40°, the relative humidity is 100%. If the temperature and dewpoint are both 78°, the relative humidity is also 100%. But under which scenario would you rather mow the lawn or run a marathon? Clearly the higher dewpoint represents the muggier weather. Just reporting 100% relative humidity doesn't tell the whole story.

Here are some rules of thumb for understanding dewpoint: When it's in the 50s, humidity is neglible. Once the dewpoint reaches the 60s, you start to notice it. In the mid 60s... muggy. Once the dewpoint reaches 70, the air starts to feel like a South Florida swamp.

I'd think a sports anchor would be the last person to pick a fight over the value of meaningless statistics.