Van_Denton's Blog

Now that we have the first freeze behind us, it is time to think about the first snow.  I am not talking reports of flurries from various spots in the piedmont, we had that already in Greensboro in late October.  It has to be snow that shows up in the record books.  That means the first time that snow is reported at Piedmont-Triad airport by the FAA office.   It can be flurries or more.   So long as they report a Trace or more.

• Please list your NAME 
• Hometown
• Your prediction date

You have until Midnight on November 23rd to get your predictions in and if we get a snow before that date, we will use the first snow after that date to declare the winner.

Also, make a note that the FOX 8 Weather Team will deliver it's Winter Weather Predictions on the morning show, November 24th.

Ok, so I just made a fool of myself for the 3rd year in a row on Halloween.

2 years ago it was a sheet that was made transparent to give the illusion that I was a ghost.  I was Spooky Van.

Last year....a green sheet that covered all of me except my hands and head.  I was Head Weatherman.

This year....a green sheet over my head only.  I was Headless Van.

I am now looking for ideas to make 2009 the best year ever.  If you have an idea, please share it below.

We are lucky here in North Carolina to have both the beach and mountains within a few hours drive.

Which do you prefer?

My vote goes to the mountains.

The color is peaking in most areas above 4000 feet this weekend (Oct. 17-19).   Some of the leaves are already falling off the trees above 5000 feet.  Good color is being found above 3000 feet.   

Next weekend (Oct. 24-26), we will find peak color below 3000 feet.  Above 3000 feet many leaves will be off the trees.

 October 17-19

 October 24-26

 October 31-November 2

Welcome to fall.  Cooler days and chilly nights are ahead.

So how good of a predictor are you?  Predict the date when you think we will dip to 32 for the first time at Piedmont-Triad Airport this fall.

Keep in mind we may have frost sooner.  We are going by the first Official FREEZE (when the low is recorded at 32° or colder for the first time) for this forecast.

Please  inlcude your

Name and City/Town

I will mention the winner on the 10 pm news.

To be eligible, you must have your prediction on this blog by Midnight, October 6th.

This week (specifically, Sept. 10th) marks the peak of Hurricane Season.

The peak is based on activity in the Atlantic basin over the past 100 years. 

Notice that on the 10th, there have been 96 active storms on that date in that time period.  In other words in most years, that has been at least one active Tropical Storm our Hurricane on that date.  Some years there have been more than one.  Just last week, we had 3 active storms at one time.

Also, notice that by the end of the month of September, that number fall to nearly 50, or almost half the activity.  That is good as the season activity drops off rapidly after the peak week.  There is a little spike in mid-October.  Typically, by then, the westerlies take over and protect our area.   However, in 1954, Hurricane Hazel ripped through NC in Mid-October.

The season doesn't officially end until November 30.

Had Fay been over open water for a long time, there is no doubt it would have become a hurricane.  Possibly a major hurricane.  However, its track over Cuba and later Florida prevented that from happening.  Still, the storm has already made the record books.  

More than 2 feet of rain in parts of Florida and 3 Landfalls as of Thursday, August 21.

First landfall was near Key West, Florida then it was Cape Ramano on the SW Coast of the state and finally Daytona Beach.   However, it could make a 4th if it actually makes it back into the Gulf of Mexico and then touches the Florida coast again.

Already, the 3 landfalls ties the record for the most landfalls from a single tropical system in Florida.  

 The others: 

1. 1878  Unnamed storm
2. 1950  Easy
3. 1960  Donna
4. 1994  Gordan
5. 2008  Fay

If it can make it to 4 landfalls, it will stand alone.

It is time.  As of this writing, Friday morning at 2:22 am...there are no Tropical Depressions, Storms or Hurricanes in the Atlantic.  However, from what I can tell, it is about to change.

The system moving near Puerto Rico this morning has me concerned.  It appears to be headed into a favorable environment and could rapidly development late in the weekend and early next week.

Here is a great link for those that like to track the tropical models

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Most everyone has heard about the Dog Days of Summer.  But, do you know where the term came from?

The ancient Romans observed that the brightest star in the constellation Canis Major (the big dog), Sirius, was rising and setting with the sun from near July 3rd through August 11th.  This led them to believe that it added heat and was responsible for this being the hottest part of summer.

 I am looking forward to August 12th when the Dog Days are over.   Bring on autumn.

Over the past weekend, many viewers saw vivid rainbows and some even saw double rainbows.  Many of those pictures have been featured in blogs on this site.

So how do we get a Double Rainbow?

From UCAR.....

"Sometimes we see two rainbows at once, what causes this? We have followed the path of a ray of sunlight as it enters and is reflected inside the raindrop. But not all of the energy of the ray escapes the raindrop after it is reflected once. A part of the ray is reflected again and travels along inside the drop to emerge from the drop. The rainbow we normally see is called the primary rainbow and is produced by one internal reflection; the secondary rainbow arises from two internal reflections and the rays exit the drop at an angle of 50 degrees° rather than the 42°degrees for the red primary bow. Blue light emerges at an even larger angle of 53 degrees°. This effect produces a secondary rainbow that has its colors reversed compared to the primary."

By the way under ideal conditions it is possible to get as many as 4 rainbows, however most people will never observe more than 2 at once.

Summer is here...it arrived at 7:59 pm, Friday night, June 20.

We've already had hot weather this year and we know that we will get more.  Have you ever noticed that even on our hottest days, you can find relief in our mountains?  Do you know why?

Due to physical properties (density of the air and surrounding air being elevated well above the surfaces so less heating from solar radiation), the air cools with height an average of 3.6 degrees F per 1000 feet.

Here in the Piedmont-Triad, our elevation is between 800-1000 feet in most areas.   Boone's elevation is approx. 3500 feet.   This 2500 foot difference is responsible for the 9-10 °F drop that is often observed.  How about Mt. Mitchell (our highest mountain) at 6684 feet.  That is a difference of about 5700 feet or about 20 degrees.

So on our hottest days when the high may reach 95-97, it will be around 75 on top of Mt. Mitchell.

Every year many from the Piedmont venture to the Grand Strand.  Seems everyone has their favorite shortcut  :-)  

Now we have the 4 lanes through Montgomery county and that is going to make the trip a little faster. 

Which roads do you take to Myrtle Beach? 

Have you noticed the smoke?   The wildfire in eastern NC, near the outer banks, has brought a smoke haze and smell to the Piedmont-Triad.  The smoke has traveled nearly 200 miles to get here and has been pushed by winds from the east blowing to the west.

You may have also noticed it is worst at night and in the mornings.  That is due to the inversion that sets up at night, which keeps the smoke closer to the surface and more concentrated.   During the afternoon the air mixed due to heating and this mixing helps clear our air.   Still the air quality has not been very good.   Here is a link to the Forsyth County Environmental Affairs office website where they measure our Air Quality.

http://www.co.forsyth.nc.us/envaffairs/dailyforecas
t.aspx

At times the air quality has been in the RED.

Over the coming days our wind direction should change and that will help here.  A west wind could bring smoke to some of our northern beaches.

Neill's blog brought back an interesting memory and our discussion actually led to an interesting coincidence.  Tweetsie was the first theme park that either of us ever visited as kids.  I then learned that we both had visited the park riding in Chevy Impalas, his a 65 and ours was a 64.  Both were Red.  Both got the bumper sticker.

Anyone else remember getting one of those Tweetsie bumper stickers years ago?