From what I am seeing, this year seems to be pretty normal. The past 2 years were about 7-10 days behind schedule. This year, I think we are going to run about 2-3 days behind schedule.
With that in mind here is an early look at where I think color will be good and when.
October 4-5 About 20-30% color change at near Grandfather Mtn above 4000 feet (still a week from real good color)
October 11-12 Peak color above 4000 feet (including Grandfather Mtn, Parkway south of Boone very good
October 18-19 Peak color above 3000 feet (including Boone.....good color on the parkway north of 421 into SW Virginia)...this is also the weekend of the Wooly Worm Festival in Banner Elk
October 25-26 Leaves off the trees in most mountain areas above 3000 feet. Peak color below 3000 feet and in the valleys. This would also be the weekend with the best color in the Asheville area (city of Asheville is approx. 2500 feet). Keep in mind there are many mountains much higher near Asheville that will already be past peak. However, the drought has been really bad there and many leaves may just turn brown. So a sub par year is expected there in the Southwest.
Some of the best color this year should be in the mountains from Grandfather Mtn and north into SW Virginia. This area had more rain in the spring and summer.
Below are a few pictures from September 29 (weeks before peak color)
Ridgeline near Boone Fork on the Blue Ridge Parkway....Sept. 29, 2008 Elevation 4000 feet.
Price lake near Blowing Rock on the parkway, Sept.29, 2008. Elevation 3375 feet