melissa_magee's Blog

Arctic air swept through the Tri-State area on the first day of January and a few snow showers are possible on the second day of 2009. Skies will become partly cloudy tonight with increasing cloud cover during the overnight hours. The overnight low in Midtown will fall down to 28 degrees, while the coldest suburbs could have readings in the teens.

Clouds will continue to build and thicken in advance of the next area of low pressure expected to move through the Tri-State are Friday. Light snow showers are expected to move through from mid-morning through the early half of the afternoon. There could be light snow to the north and west of the city with no more than an inch of accumulation, while the city and coast will find a few scattered snow showers flying around... but nothing sticking to the surfaces.

As the winds become more west or southwesterly tomorrow, the arctic chill will start to lose some of its grip. Temperatures on Friday will rebound into the upper 30s in Midtown. The area of low pressure is expected to exit the region later Friday evening, but it will usher in gusty winds up to 35 mph.

The start of the first weekend of 2009 will be cold and windy. Saturday, expect lots of sunshine with gusty northwest winds up to 30 mph. Sunday, sun will give way to increasing clouds with the possibility of light rain and snow breaking out in the city and north and west by the afternoon. Otherwise, the high temperature on Sunday will be in the upper 30s.

Monday will be dry and sunny with temperatures in the lower 40s. The next shot of precipitation will arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Thursday: New Year's Day:  It will be a very chilly start to the new year as we will barely make it to the freezing mark of 32 degrees.  Clouds will be rapidly thrown out in the early on so we should see plenty of sunshine.  It is too bad that won't make a difference as High pressure out of Canada will be bringing very cold air to the region that will have a hard time warming up.  Highs for the day will be in the upper 20s with lows in the mid 20s.

Friday: The next storm geared for Friday is likely to bring some snow/rain showers during the middle of the day.  The storm track keeps changing as it approaches the eastern half of the U.S. and is now steering more towards upstate N.Y. near Canada.  If it drops lower to us, we will see some accumulation of a few inches but for now, a dusting at best is what we will get on the ground.  This storm will linger into the evening hours and then pull out leaving some scattered clouds.  Highs will be in the upper 30s and lows near 30.

Saturday - Tuesday: High pressure takes over for the rest of the weekend, drying up the sky and bringing some more sunshine for the next several days.  Another storm system will be coming by mid week next week.  Temps for this period will be in the upper 30s and lows in the low 30s and upper 20s.

A Freezing Rain Advisory is in effect through 8 a.m. Saturday for northeast New Jersey, as well as Rockland, Westchester, Putnam, Orange and Sullivan counties in New York. A warm front is approaching the tri-state Region later Friday night and with the cold air locked in at the surface, there could be light snow/sleet and freezing rain to the north and west of the city. A tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch of ice is possible across interior sections of the region, before the precipitation changes over to plain rain.The overnight low in Midtown will be in the upper 30s while the low in the coldest suburbs will be in the upper 20s.

 The warm front will continue to travel through the region Saturday morning and bring rain for the city and the coast, as well as freezing rain to the north and west. As warmer air moves into the tri-state region, the precipitation should change over to plain rain to the north and west of the city, too. While there will be rain around the area this weekend, temperatures will be mild. Saturday, daytime highs will be in the lower 50s.

As the warm front lifts to the north of the area Saturday morning, there could be a break in the precipitation Saturday afternoon before the cold front swing through late in the day into Sunday. Otherwise it will be mostly cloudy throughout the day. Sunday, the slow moving front will move through bringing more rain showers to the area. Daytime highs on Sunday could be in the lower 60s in the city, with temperatures in the middle and lower 50s for the suburbs.

High pressure returns to the area to start the week on Monday and Tuesday with temperatures slightly above the seasonal average. A clipper system is expected to move through the area on Wednesday…which happens to be New Years Eve. We are still working on the timing of the clipper system to see if the storm will move out before the ball drops in Times Square. Either way, temperatures Wednesday will be above average, so only light rain showers are expected. In the wake of the clipper, Thursday and Friday, temperatures will be cooler

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The winds have diminished, but it is cooler with a northwest wind. Tonight, expect a dry night with mainly clear skies. The overnight low in Midtown will fall near 30 degrees, while you could find lows in the teens in some of the coldest suburbs.

Friday will remain dry as high pressure continues to dominate our weather. The day will start out with a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the lower 40s in the city. Sunshine will give way to increasing clouds Friday afternoon, as our next storm system approaches the region.

Later Friday night, there could be a few light showers in the city, with wintry precipitation to the north and west of the city. As a result, there could be a concern for a little bit of ice to the north and west Friday night. As warmer air works in from the south and west late Friday into Saturday, all the precipitation is expected to changeover to rain.

The weekend will be mild, but wet. Showers are possible early Saturday with highs in the lower 50s. There should be a break in the wet weather by Saturday afternoon, before another round comes in late Saturday into Sunday.

Sunday will be even warmer with daytime highs in the city flirting with 60 degrees. The on and off showers will continue with gusty winds expected late Sunday night.

Dry conditions and cooler temperatures are on the way Monday through Wednesday, as temperatures become a bit more seasonable. The next shot of wet weather comes with a possible clipper system Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to cool down behind the clipper system Thursday.

It's the night before Christmas and the rain continues to fall across the Tri-State region. A Flood Watch has been posted for Ulster and Dutchess counties in New York, as well as Litchfield County in Connecticut. As warm air continues to pump into the area and the rain continues to fall, there is a concern to the north and west of the city for rapid snow melt. That's why the Flood Watch will remain posted until Friday morning.

The overnight low in Midtown Manhattan will fall down to 36 degrees and it will remain a touch cooler in the suburbs. The cold front responsible for all of the rain is expected to move through the area after midnight. So, until then, expect light to moderate rain to fall. During the overnight hours, however, the region is expected to dry out from a west to east.

Christmas Day look to be merry, but windy. Thursday, clouds will give way to early sunshine in the wake of the cold front. Daytime highs will be in the middle 40s in Midtown. The probability of a White Christmas in Central Park is around 10 percent, and while there won't be snow falling this year, there will be plenty of sunshine to enjoy. The winds on Thursday could gusts up to 45 mph with a northwest wind.

The dry pattern will continue Friday for all of those ready to hit the post-holiday sales. Sunshine will blanket much of the area Friday with highs in the lower 40s. Sunshine, however, will give way to clouds Friday night as a front approaches from the west. Overnight Friday into the weekend, there could be a wintry mix of precipitation that breaks out, especially to the north and west of the city. As temperatures continue to rise, the precipitation will change over to all rain for the entire region Saturday.

Despite clouds and rain, temperatures will be mild both Saturday and Sunday The high in Midtown will climb into the middle and lower 50s. On and off rain showers will continue throughout the weekend, until the front moves through.

Monday and Tuesday, high pressure returns to the area with temperatures in the middle and lower 40s. The next threat of showers comes Wednesday.

The good news Sunday night is that the storm system is out of the tri-state region, but not without leaving behind a wintry mix of precipitation in New York City and more snow to the north and west. The area of low pressure will continue to press toward the Canadian Maritimes later Sunday and into Monday. The big story behind the storm is gusty winds and dangerously cold wind chills. The overnight low in Midtown will fall down to 18 degrees, while  lows in the suburbs will range from 8 to 18 degrees.

As we prepare for the upcoming week, high pressure will build into the area on Monday, bringing a gusty northwest wind and frigid arctic air. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire tri-state area through Noon Monday, as winds could gusts from 40-50 MPH. Keep in mind, the winds could knock down trees, tree limbs and power lines. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 2 a.m. to 10 a.m. Monday for Sullivan and Ulster counties in New York, as it will feel anywhere from 5 to 10 below zero.

Monday will be sunny, dry, but cold. Daytime highs in Midtown will be no higher than 26 degrees and even colder in the suburbs. By Monday afternoon, high pressure will build into the area, and as a result, the winds will start to diminish. Tuesday high pressure will continue to dominate our area bringing a mix of sun and clouds and daytime Highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

The Arctic air mass will start to lose its grip on our area by Wednesday. High pressure will move to the east and the winds will come out of the southwest. The southwest wind will usher in milder air, as daytime highs will  be around 50 degrees in the city. The milder air, however, will come at a price. Late Christmas Eve into Christmas Day, a cold front will approach the region, bringing rain. The rain is expected to last through the first half of Christmas day, then move out of the area. The high on Thursday will be in the middle to upper 40s, so I guess we'll have to dream of a "White Christmas" next year.

For all of the post Christmas holiday shoppers, Friday looks to be mostly cloudy, but mild. And there is a possibility of rain showers next weekend.

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The mild weather of yesterday is now a thing of the past. The cold arctic air has officially settled into the Tri-State and it will remain cold through the weekend. Tonight conditions will remain dry under a partly cloudy sky. Overnight lows will range from 18 degrees in the coldest suburbs to 28 degrees in Midtown.

Saturday should start out with a blend of sun and clouds, but changes are on the way by the afternoon. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will slide offshore and east of the Tri-State. As the high moves out, the clouds will be rolling in by Saturday afternoon. Meantime daytime highs will be in the upper 30s. A clipper system will be moving through the Great Lakes and then our area.

As the clipper moves through late Saturday evening, there could be a few flurries across the area. A secondary low will develop offshore and move toward the north and east late Saturday and into Sunday. As the area of low pressure intensifies offshore it will pass to the east of the area and head up into New England. As it passes, there could be up to an inch of snow across the region.

As the storm pulls away Sunday evening, the winds will howl from the northwest. There could be a need to issue a wind advisory as winds could gusts from 40-45 MPH.

Monday, the cold stays in place with temperatures below average, struggle to get out of the 30s. As the cold sets in, an unsettled pattern will develop next week. As temperatures rebound slightly, rain showers are possible Tuesday through Wednesday. As colder air sets back in, the rain could end with a few flurries next Thursday and Friday... stay tuned.

We've got a change on the way and it comes in the form of COLD. Light rain showers are expected to taper off from a west to east fashion, as a cold front moves offshore. The low in Midtown will fall down to 34 degrees, while the suburbs will range from 24-54. As the cold front exits, the winds will turn from the southwest to the northwest and here comes the cold!

An arctic air mass will move into the region Friday, bringing lots of cold air and snow showers across the Great Lakes. Canadian high pressure will keep conditions dry with bright sunshine, but the cold air is locked in. The High in Midtown will be 39 and temperatures will be even colder in the suburbs.

Saturday, High pressure will move off the eastern seaboard and clouds will start to increase by the afternoon. Temperatures will remain below average, as they will struggle to get out of the 30s. Late in the day an Alberta Clipper is expected to move into the Tri-State and with the cold air in place, we could find light snow. The snow is expected to linger into Sunday.

We'll have to watch the clipper closes because as it moves offshore, an area of low pressure could develop and intensify. Right now, it looks like the heaviest precip will be offshore, but there could be a dusting of snow across the Tri-State Sunday, especially across Eastern Long Island and Coastal Connecticut. The High on Sunday will be 37 degrees.

Monday will be mostly sunny and below average. A cold front will approach late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing showers. On the back side of the front, the air could be cold enough to pull down a few flurries Thursday.

Hey everyone,

I had such a great time visitng Mt. Carmel - Holy Rosary School...I just had to share. Take a look at the photos: This is Mr. Finney's 6th grade classroom. During my visit to the school, I was able to teach the students a little bit more about the study of meteorology. Enjoy the pictures.

 

Hey Everyone,

I wanted to tell you about a really fun, smart group of students, with whom I had the pleasure of spending time. Earlier this week, I took a little field trip to The Marymount School of New York (an all girl school) and met with high school seniors to talk about weather and science.  I spoke to students in the "Atmospheric Science" class at the high school...and I must say, I was quite impressed. It is very rare for a high school to have "Atmospheric Science" as part of its' curriculum. That course is more common at the college level...so KUDOS to The Marymount School of New York. The senior class had such a good understanding of how the weather works and they were quite familiar with some of the computer models I use on a daily basis to forecast for the Tri-State.

One of the cool things the class does is put together a weekly forecast. The students will videotape a forecast and in turn, share thier forecast with the rest of the school. I'm always excited to see young stuents taking an interest in the weather.

Pretty soon, I'll share the video I took of the class on our website. I'll let you know when it's been posted.

Until then, stay warm and get used to the cold weather. Temperatures will be colder than normal as we head into the weekend. While temperatures could rebound slightly next week, they will still be below average.

chat soon,

Melissa

 

Stop complaining! If they can do it, so can we, right?

Over the weekend, I was truly inspired by nearly 40,000 people running the New York City Marathon. Wow, was the race a sight to see! If you were watching the race this past Sunday, you know what I mean. I was watching runners near the 25 mile marker and it was incredible; runners were pushing through their aches and pains, while you heard cheers of  "keep going," or "you're almost there" from complete strangers standing on the sideline.

As I stood in Central Park for an hour watching the runners, I got a big boost of energy. The strength, the perseverance, the chutzpah of those men and women to run 26.2 miles really woke me up. If they can do it, so can I! I can tell you right now, running long distance is just not for me, but surely there is something else I'd like to acheive. And I'm not wasting anymore time. What about you? Don't we all have a laundry list of things we say we are going to accomplish, but somehow never complete? We'll what's stopping us?

So, thank you NYC Marathon runners! Whether you know it or not, your fight to the finish, your personal stories of triumph motivated so many people to MOVE. So, as Yoda would say, "Try not. Do or do not, there is no try."

chat soon,

Melissa

 

 

Hey gang,

Thanks so much for participating in last week's live Weather Chat. Don't forgot...the chats will be every Wednesday at Noon.

If you have a weather topic you'd like to discuss, feel free to let me know...it would be great to hear from you.

See you Wednesday at Noon,

 

Melissa

  

Temperatures were able to rebound nicely Sunday after Saturday's wet and windy weather. With a west to southwesterly wind behind the cold front, daytime Highs on Sunday managed to climb into the 60s. For Sunday night, the winds will remain out of the southwest and that will allow for a few more clouds to build into the area. The overnight low in Midtown is expected to fall down to 50, while the suburbs will range from 39-50 degrees.

Monday, weather conditions should start out dry with morning sunshine. As the day continues, clouds will begin to filter into the tri-state as a weak trough approaches from the west. The trough is expected to trigger a few scattered showers across the Great Lakes before it moves toward the southeast Monday afternoon. As the front makes eastward progress, clouds will start to build into the tri-state. There is not a lot of moisture with this front, so scattered showers will be limited to the north and west. Otherwise, daytime highs on Monday will be in the middle to upper 50s.

While there is the possibility of a few isolated showers Monday and Tuesday with weak fronts coming through the area, the bigger story this upcoming week will be the arrival of cooler air. Cooler air from Canada is expected to spill into the Great Lakes and move into the eastern half of the United States. In fact by Wednesday, temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s. By Friday, temperatures will start to get a little closer to normal.

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Would you want the middle 50s or middle 70s in late October? Well, let's just do a little comparison:

October 23, 2007: it was very mild. The daytime high in Central Park was 78 degrees. The overnight low was 66 degrees and we picked up one one-hundredth of an inch of rainfall.

Let's fast forward to the present. We've got some cold Canadian air sitting over the Tri-State today and temperatures are at least 5 degrees below average. The daytime highs will range from the middle to lower 50s. So, make sure you have your fall coats and jackets! In fact, if you are going to be near the Hudson Valley, Northeast New Jersey down to Southern Jersey or out in Suffolk County in Long Island...you may be tempted to turn on the heat. The are Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories posted for your area!

We may not make it up to 78 degrees like last year, but the good news is temperatures are expected to rebound tomorrow. Friday, temperatures should be in the lower 60s and closer to normal. Don't get too comfortable, we've got a storm system coming in over the weekend that could dampen your outdoor plans. Saturday is likely to be very wet and windy. The storm is expected to pull out of the area Sunday afternoon.

chat soon,

Melissa

 

Break out the jackets, because ready or not here comes the cooler air! You can thank the cold front that moved through the Tri-State today for the cooler temperatures. The front triggered some scattered showers across the area, but the heaviest moisture stayed to the north of the viewing area.

As the front has yet to clear the area, there could be a few quick showers this evening. As the front exits, the cooler air will start to settle in. The overnight low in Midtown will fall down to 50 degrees, while the suburbs will range from the upper 30s to the upper 40s.

The last day of the work week will bring a cool change. Behind the cold front, the winds will shift from the south, southwest to the north. And that northerly wind will usher in the cooler air, especially as High pressure returns to the area. Daytime Highs will struggle to get out of the 50s in some spots, especially with a cool north wind. High pressure will dominate the region right through the weekend. There might be a few more clouds around Saturday as a coastal storm stays offshore to our south and east. Sunday looks to be dry, too. Expect highs over the weekend in the upper 50s.

Temperatures should start to rebound early next week with seasonable conditions. The average for the city this time of year is right around 63...and we will be close to that Monday. The next threat for showers will be late Monday as another cold front approaches the area. It looks like the next shot of cool air will arrive by the middle of next week.